Strengthening Local Food Systems in the Context of COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from Zimbabwe

The COVID-19 pandemic, together with other shocks, have exposed the vulnerability and risk of local, national and global food systems and are threatening the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) especially SDG 2 - to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture. However, the scientific evidence is relatively thin on how local food systems can cope with the COVID-19 pandemic and other shocks. The aim of this chapter is to draw lessons from Zimbabwe on how local food systems can be strengthened to cope with COVID-19 pandemic and other shocks. To this end, an online survey was conducted with 46 people with purposively sampled participants representing development partners, academia, research organisations, civil society organisations, think tanks and the private sector. Key informant interviews (KIIs) (15 in total) with a subset of them complemented the survey. The study used descriptive statistics to analyse quantitative data, while qualitative data was analysed thematically. The majority of respondents agreed that it is important to formulate policies and programmes that focus on building resilience of local food systems to withstand shocks and emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic. Promoting local food production, building resilience of local communities, shortening food supply chains and designing effective social protection programmes are some of the important factors that were highlighted as being essential in strengthening local food systems to respond to shocks. The study concludes that adequate budgetary support and capacitating the local people to deal with and recover from shocks are also key ingredients in supporting the local food systems during COVID-19 pandemic and other shocks. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023.

Dynamic effects and driving intermediations of oil price shocks on major economies

Interest in oil price shocks' economic effects has grown in recent years. However, previous studies mostly failed to clarify the dynamic transmissions of oil price shocks on representative economies from global and driver perspectives, even ignoring oil price fluctuations when linking oil prices and economy together. This paper examines the dynamic relationships and driving intermediations between multiple oil price shocks and macroeconomy by applying Bayesian vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility and time-varying parameters, using the USA, China, the Euro-19, and Japan as research objects. Results show that, in the whole sample, all oil prices have the strongest effects on Japan, followed by China, Euro-19, and the USA, with possible directional differences. All oil prices' economic effects intensified during the crisis and Covid-19, accompanying significant oil price fluctuations. Regarding asymmetry, in the whole sample and critical times, stronger effects of rising oil prices show in the short term, but opposite in the long term. Consumer price, interest rate, and exchange rate are the general intermediations of oil prices in China and the USA, Euro-19, and Japan, respectively, and exchange rate is the additional intermediation in China, Euro-19, and Japan during the crisis and Covid-19. Overall, the results are solid.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility

This research examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices on Pakistan's stock market volatility. Particularly, we examine the impact of the economic policy uncertainty index for Pakistan and bilateral global trading partner countries, the US, China, and the UK. We employ the GARCH-MIDAS model and combination forecast approach to evaluate the performance of economic uncertainty indices. The empirical findings show that the US economic policy uncertainty index is a more powerful predictor of Pakistan stock market volatility. In addition, the EPU index for the UK also provides valuable information for equity market volatility prediction. Surprisingly, Pakistan and China EPU indices have no significant predictive information for volatility forecasting during the sample period. Lastly, we find evidence of all uncertainty indices during economic upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic. We obtained identical results even during the Covid-19. Our findings are robust in various evaluation methods, like MCS tests and other forecasting windows.

Global Uncertainty and Economic Growth - Evidence from Pandemic Periods

This paper investigates whether global uncertainty predicts economic growth rates using a global sample of 136 countries. We use the panel regression model and find strong evidence that global uncertainty negatively predicts the economic growth rate. Further, the negative impact of global uncertainty on economic growth rates is amplified during pandemic periods versus non-pandemic periods. Our main findings hold after a range of robustness tests.

Modeling Oil shocks–Green Investments Nexus: A Global Evidence Based on Wavelet Coherence Technique

This study investigates the interdependence between oil shocks and green investments over time and frequency domains. Using the wavelet coherence approach, our results show evidence of bidirectional causality between all the variants of oil shocks and green investments around the global financial crisis and the 2014-2016 oil crisis. Economic activity shocks significantly Granger-cause green investments during the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2023, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association. All rights reserved.

The COVID-19 pandemic, economic policy uncertainty and the hedging role of cryptocurrencies: a global perspective

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to global economic policy uncertainty, which has increased the need to investigate ways to mitigate the uncertainty. This study aims to examine the potential of cryptocurrencies as a hedge and safe haven avenue against economic policy uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThis study investigates the behavior of the five leading cryptocurrencies in relation to country-level and group-level economic policy uncertainty indices, as measured by the text-based method developed by Baker et al. (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, 131, 1593-1636). The research covers a broad range of emerging and developed economies from July 2013 to September 2020. The study employs the approach of Narayan et al. (Economic Modelling, 2016, 53, 388-397) to examine the hedging and safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies.FindingsThis study finds that the top cryptocurrencies play a hedging role against economic policy uncertainty, with some exceptions. Additionally, there is evidence to support the idea that cryptocurrencies can serve as a safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, investors may benefit from using cryptocurrencies as a risk-management avenue during times of uncertainty.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the existing literature by testing the cryptocurrencies' hedging and safe haven properties in a new way, by analyzing their lead and lag behaviors using a recent and innovative approach. Additionally, it examines a wide range of emerging and advanced markets, providing insight into the potential of using cryptocurrencies as a risk mitigation avenue.

Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871-2016.

This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871-2016 using the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.

Lockdown spillovers.

Lockdowns imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have cross-border effects. In this paper, we estimate the empirical magnitude of lockdown spillovers in a set of panel local projections. We use daily indicators of economic activity such as stock returns, effective exchange rates, NO2 emissions, mobility and maritime container trade. Lockdown shocks originating in the most important trading partners have a strong and significant adverse effect on economic activity in the home economy. For stock prices and exports, the spillovers can even be larger than the effect of domestic lockdown shocks. The results are robust with respect to alternative country weights used to construct foreign shocks, i.e. weights based on foreign direct investment or the connectedness through value chains. We find that lockdown spillovers have been particularly strong during the first wave of the pandemic. Countries with a higher export share are particularly exposed to lockdown spillovers.

The impact of labour market shocks on mental health: evidence from the Covid-19 first wave.

In this study, we estimate the effect of a negative labour market shock on individuals' levels of stress, anxiety, and depression. We use a dataset collected during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, on a representative sample of citizens from Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, interviewed on three occasions. We measure stress, anxiety and depression and labour shocks using validated scales. Our research design is a standard difference-in-differences model: we leverage the differential timing of shocks to identify the impact on mental health. In our estimations, a negative labour shock increases the measure of stress, anxiety, and depression by 16% of a standard deviation computed from the baseline.

Effects of intergovernmental revenue on local government draw on fiscal reserves: evidence from COVID-19 fiscal stress

This study investigates the effects of receipt and anticipation of intergovernmental revenues on local governments draw on accumulated fiscal reserves to cushion the impacts of COVID-19-related fiscal stress. Several studies have been conducted on determinants of fiscal reserves accumulation. However, little is known about the determinants of government draw on fiscal reserves, beyond revenue shortfall, in times of fiscal stress. Dwelling on the premise that government's draw on fiscal reserves is influenced by factors beyond revenue shortfall and controlling for the effects of revenue shortfalls and other factors, we analysed local government survey data to determine the effects of intergovernmental revenue on government draw on fiscal reserves. Results show that draw on fiscal reserves is significantly constrained by percent of FY 2020 revenue received from federal and state governments, but significantly and positively inluenced by revenue losses and percent of FY 2021 revenue anticipated from federal government.

Coping with COVID-19 shocks in rural Nepal

We examine shocks experienced by rural Nepali households during the COVID-19 pandemic. Households primarily experienced income and price shocks during a government-imposed lockdown. During this time, households managed to effectively protect consumption, and mostly relied on credit (26%), asset sales (10%) and savings (8%). Debt levels nearly doubled, with limited changes to savings. We then leverage a long-term randomized control trial (RCT) to assess whether beneficiaries of a livestock livelihood program are more resilient. Program beneficiaries are 6 percentage points less likely to take out new loans.

Women's self-employment intentions after global shocks: insights from Egypt and Spain

We compare the self-employment intentions of women from different contexts, namely, Egypt and Spain after two recent incidents of global economic collapse - the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We draw on occupational choice and human capital theories to better understand how the self-employment intentions of women with different age, perceptual and human capital profiles vary in periods of crisis. Consistent with previous studies, the results suggest that intentions of self-employment vary with the specific perceptual and human capital attributes of women. However, the macroeconomic conditions and the context matter since the findings also show that the factors that drive the self-employment intention of women differ from one global shock to another. Moreover, the impact of each global shock in every context is different. These findings provide new guidance for policymakers by acknowledging the relevance of the heterogeneity of women, economic periods and contexts to the choice of self-employment.

An Assessment of Unconventional Monetary Policy During COVID-19 Pandemic in India

We employ event study methodology to analyze the impact of unprecedented unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures employed by the Reserve Bank of India to fortify monetary transmission mechanism and to restore financial stability. We find that the UMP announcements result in a decline in bond yields and yield spread as well as increase in market capitalization and sectoral portfolio of stock returns. Evaluating the relative efficacy of UMP measures, we find that targeted long-term repo operation announcements are more effective in easing bond yields than mere long-term repo operations. Our findings provide beneficial inference for day-traders and investors as asset prices increase significantly and durable goods producing stock returns found to be higher than those of non-durable goods. The lessons that can be drawn for the emerging market economy central banks, who do not have enough space to conduct conventional monetary policy and even when they do not face zero lower bound interest rate, they still can employ UMP tools to directly influence banks cost of funds, and long-term bond yields and interest rates, and in turn, portfolio of stock returns and investments to stimulate aggregate demand. JEL Classification: C13, C54, E52, E65

Innovation, digital technologies, and sales growth during exogenous shocks

We investigate how the introduction of different types of innovation and the adoption of various digital technologies during exogenous shocks, influence firms' sales growth. By drawing from a sample of 1979 firms from the Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) during the COVID-19 pandemic, we show that although some innovation types enhance sales growth, others are not as important and can even reduce revenue over time. Moreover, by examining the interrelationship between innovation and digital technologies we unveil situations where the simultaneous introduction of certain types of innovations with specific digital tools further enhances sales growth and other instances where rigidities arise that impair sales growth. This study furthers our understanding of whether and how innovation, digital technologies, and their interaction, enable firms to positively respond to the challenges of exogenous shocks.

Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments*

The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze households' spending responses using data from a Fintech nonprofit, exploring heterogeneity by income, recent income declines, and liquidity as well as linked survey responses about economic expectations. Households respond rapidly to payments, with spending increasing by about $0.14 per dollar during the first week and plateauing around $0.25-$0.30 over 3 months. In contrast to previous stimulus programs, we see little response of durables spending. Households with lower incomes, greater income declines, and less liquidity display stronger responses whereas households that expect employment losses and benefit cuts display weaker responses.

Macroeconomic impact of the supply shock during COVID-19 pandemic in India

Purpose: The study focuses on examining the impact of the supply shock on the Indian macroeconomic variables during the COVID-19 period. Design/methodology/approach: Time-varying factor augmented vector autoregressive model has been employed to study the asymmetry in transmission of supply shock on Indian economy during pre- and post-COVID-19 times. Findings: The authors find that with supply shock, retail food inflation outpaced in COVID-19 times. Production levels reported by IIP fell to abysmally low levels in the post-COVID-19 times when the economy stalled. The liquidity stimulus provided by the central bank led to the negative response of policy rates to the supply shocks during the COVID-19 times. Originality/value: The study stands novel in examining the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Indian economy through the lenses of asymmetric transmission of supply shock during pre- and post-COVID-19 times. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates

Oil is an energy resource and a driver of global economic activities. The increasing need for oil amplifies its trade and places pressure on the current account balance, which causes exchange rate fluctuations. We transcend the mean-based connectedness measures to explore the oil shocks-exchange rates nexus from an asymmetric perspective. With daily data from 07-03–1996 to 22-08-2022, we analyse the quantile dynamic spillovers between oil price shocks and exchange rates of oil-exporting and oil-importing economies. We show that shock sizes shape the system returns and volatility connectedness, with lower-tailed and upper-tailed shocks having a greater influence on the system connectedness than shocks modelled at the conditional median. By demonstrating asymmetry, the findings emphasise that for a detailed comprehension of the oil shocks-exchange rates connectedness under extreme shocks, it is necessary to go beyond mean-based connectedness metrics. The implications of our findings are important for investors, policymakers, and practitioners.

"This Is Where We Have Scored”: Exploring the Interface between Project and Institutional Sustainability Facilitated by a Faith-Based Development Organisation in Sierra Leone

This paper explores the issue of project sustainability through an analysis of the experiences of a Faith-Based Development Organisation (FBDO) in Bo, Sierra Leone. The FBDO in question was approached by members of their local Catholic Women Association (CWA) to help them with the planning and management of a farm that had been donated to them by a chief. They agreed to this, and a series of workshops were held in June 2014, along with follow-up discussions with local experts and businesses as to what could be done to help support the women in their endeavour. Amongst other priorities, the women identified the need for the farm to produce food, income and help with their development. However, an outbreak of the Ebola virus that occurred between 2014 and 2016, following as it did on the back of an 11-year (1991–2002) civil war in Sierra Leone, led to a re-evaluation of the farm project in the eyes of the FBDO as they decided to shift to earlier priorities in education and health care. Given the constraints regarding resources and personnel, community projects, such as the CWA farm project, became of much lesser importance even though it resonated strongly with the goals of the FBDO and government, and had garnered much support amongst international donors. The paper sets out that story, beginning with the workshops and discussions held in 2014, and the ramifications of these responses to various ‘shocks', such as those presented by the civil war and disease outbreaks (Ebola and COVID-19);it also provides recommendations that might be of use regarding the interface between project and institutional sustainability within FBDOs and, indeed, the wider community of development organisations.

Covid-19-induced Shocks, Access to Basic Needs and Coping Strategies.

We examine the association between the Covid-19 pandemic and and access to basic needs, and how households respond using various coping strategies in the context of Nigeria. We use data from the Covid-19 National Longitudinal Phone Surveys (Covid-19 NLPS-2020) conducted during the Covid-19 lockdown. Our findings reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic is associated with households' exposure to shocks such as illness or injury, disruption of farming, job losses, non-farm business closure, and increase in price of food items and farming inputs. These negative shocks have severe consequences on access to basic needs of households, and the outcomes are heterogeneous across gender of household head and rural-urban residence. Households adopt a number of coping strategies, both formal and informal to mitigate the effects of the shocks on access to basic needs. The findings of this paper lend credence to the growing evidence on need to support households exposed to negative shocks and the role of formal coping mechanisms for households in developing countries.

Nous examinons le lien entre les chocs provoqués par la Covid-19 et l'accès aux services répondant aux besoins fondamentaux, et la façon dont les ménages ont réagi en utilisant diverses stratégies d'adaptation au Nigeria. Nous utilisons les données d'enquêtes téléphoniques longitudinales nationales Covid-19 (Covid-19 NLPS-2020) menées pendant le confinement lié à la Covid-19. Nos résultats révèlent que la pandémie de Covid-19 est associée à l'exposition des ménages à des chocs tels que la maladie ou les blessures, la perturbation de l'agriculture, les pertes d'emplois, la fermeture d'entreprises non agricoles et l'augmentation des prix des denrées alimentaires et des intrants agricoles. Ces chocs négatifs affectent gravement l'accès aux besoins fondamentaux des ménages, et les résultats sont hétérogènes selon le sexe des chefs de famille et selon le lieu de résidence rural ou urbain des ménages. Les ménages adoptent diverses stratégies d'adaptation formelles et informelles pour atténuer les effets des chocs sur l'accès aux besoins fondamentaux. Les conclusions de ce document donnent du crédit aux preuves de plus en plus nombreuses de la nécessité de soutenir les ménages exposés aux chocs négatifs et du rôle des mécanismes d'adaptation formels pour les ménages dans les pays en développement.

Re-examining oil and BRICS' stock markets: new evidence from wavelet and MGARCH-DCC

This study examines how the relationship between oil and stock market return of BRICS behaves at different investment horizons. Using data ranging from 2006 to 2020, the wavelet and MGARCH-DCC found that the stock markets' return of Russia, Brazil, and South Africa are comparatively more correlated with oil price return across the investment horizons and more volatile particularly during the Covid-19 period. However, the stock markets' return of China and India is less correlated with oil price return and less volatile. It is also revealed that oil price return leads the BRICS' stock markets' return and both are positively correlated.